Broadway Investor Dashboard · Takes The Cake Limited Partnership
Two Strangers vs Maybe Happy Ending
Sources: The Broadway League · Playbill · Takes The Cake LPA (July 24 2025) · Live data via Anthropic web search
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Current Performance: Below Weekly Breakeven (per LP Recoupment Schedule)
LP documents show weekly breakeven at ~$584K gross (~52.7% of potential).
Current gross of $534K is
$50K below that threshold —
the partnership is burning money each week at current performance levels.
8 Tony nominations were announced May 5 — but the show did not win Best Musical (Schmigadoon! won). Summer 2026 is now the weakest stretch with July grosses at $444–497K. Show is booking through Aug 2.
TS Total Gross
$14.6M
as of 7/12/26
MHE Total Gross
$80.0M
as of latest week
TS This Week
$534K
vs $584K breakeven
LP Breakeven
~$584K
weekly gross (52.7% of potential)
TS Cap This Week
74.3%
declining trend
MHE Cap This Week
97.0%
sustained high
Tony Nominations
8 Noms
incl. Best Musical · did not win
Week-by-Week Trajectory Since Opening (first 42 weeks)
Dashed line = LP breakeven · MHE early weeks estimated · TS confirmed points shown as circles
The producer comparison held for weeks 1–8: both shows opened modestly with a Christmas bounce. MHE crossed $1M at Christmas and stayed there. Two Strangers peaked at $886K (wk 7) and has never returned to that level. 8 Tony nominations including Best Musical were announced May 5 — producing only a modest bump to $599–653K rather than the breakout lift MHE experienced. The show did not win Best Musical (Schmigadoon! won), and July 2026 is now the show's weakest stretch: $444K (wk 33) and $497K (wk 34), both well below the LP's $584K breakeven. The show books through Aug 2 with a North American tour announced for fall 2027.
Production Budget (LP, July 30 2025)
Physical Production
$762,000
Theatre Expenses
$950,000
Advertising
$1,250,000
Developmental Expenses
$711,350
Salaries / Contracts / Other
$1,886,900
Per Diem, Housing, Transport
$357,000
G&A
$321,500
Total Production Costs
$5,878,750
Bonds & Deposits
$202,136
Royalty Advances
$86,891
Reserve
$1,832,223
TOTAL CAPITALIZATION
$8,000,000
Weekly P&L Framework (LP Schedule)
Fixed Weekly Opex
$480,455
Potential Gross Weekly
$1,109,580
Potential NAGWBOR
$1,020,814
Min Weekly Guarantee
$20,000
Breakeven NAGWBOR
~$538K (52.7%)
Breakeven Gross (est.)
~$584K
Current Gross
$534K
Est. Weekly P&L
(~$47K) LOSS
Key LP Terms
Profit split after recoupment
50% LPs / 50% GPs
Stop clause risk
Grosses below threshold → theater can terminate
NYC tax credit
None expected per LPA
GP exec fees
$72K preproduction + $5,760/week + royalty
Lead Producer
Kevin McCollum (Alchemation LLC)
LP Recoupment Schedule — WNOP Model (Subscription Documents, July 30 2025)
% Capacity
NAGWBOR
Weekly P&L
Wks to Full Recoup
Status
Cumulative WNOP
—
net profit/loss vs opex
% Recouped
~2–4%
of $8M capitalization
Reserve Remaining
—
LP had $1.83M buffer
At Current Pace
Never
to full recoupment
Recoupment Progress — $8,000,000 Capitalization
3%
$0~$200K of $8M recouped$8M (full recoupment)
Cumulative WNOP Over Time
Running total of weekly profit/loss · Dashed line = full $8M recoupment · Missing weeks excluded
Weeks to Full Recoupment From Today (from LP Schedule)
120% Capacity
~19 wks
from opening · already passed
100% Capacity
—
from today if Tony lift hits 100%
90% Capacity
—
sustained post-nominations
80% Capacity
—
modest Tony bump
74% (Current)
Never
below breakeven at current pace
Total to Date
$14.6M
confirmed gross (Playbill)
Week-by-Week WNOP & Cumulative Recoupment
Wk
Week End
Gross
NAGWBOR
WNOP
Cumulative
% Recouped
Key Context
WNOP (Weekly Net Operating Profit) is calculated from the LP recoupment schedule: WNOP = 0.631 × (NAGWBOR − $538,124) where NAGWBOR ≈ gross × 91.9%. The LP's $1.83M reserve was designed to absorb early operating losses while the show builds audience. That reserve is now being drawn on each week the show operates below breakeven. Weeks with no confirmed gross are excluded from the cumulative calculation.