Two Strangers · Broadway Investor Dashboard

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Current Performance: Below Weekly Breakeven (per LP Recoupment Schedule)

LP documents show weekly breakeven at ~$584K gross (~52.7% of potential). Current gross of $534K is $50K below that threshold — the partnership is burning money each week at current performance levels. Tony nominations (~May 2026) remain the critical inflection point.

TS Total Gross

$14.6M

as of latest week

MHE Total Gross

$80.0M

as of latest week

TS This Week

$534K

vs $584K breakeven

LP Breakeven

~$584K

weekly gross (52.7% of potential)

TS Cap This Week

74.3%

declining trend

MHE Cap This Week

97.0%

sustained high

Tony Nominations

~May 2026

key catalyst — show is eligible

Week-by-Week Trajectory Since Opening (first 42 weeks)

Dashed line = LP breakeven · MHE early weeks estimated · TS confirmed points shown as circles

wk 7 · Christmas bounce wk 24 · MHE Tony noms wk 30 · MHE wins 6 Tonys wk 42 · MHE peak $1.57M · MHE early weeks estimated

Investor Analysis

The producer comparison holds for weeks 1–8: both shows opened modestly and got a Christmas lift. But MHE crossed $1M at Christmas (wk 7–8) and stayed above breakeven permanently. Two Strangers peaked at $886K at Christmas (wk 7) and has since slid — currently below the LP's own breakeven of ~$584K. At week 21, MHE was at ~100% capacity and building toward Tony nominations; Two Strangers is at ~74% and declining. The LP recoupment schedule requires roughly 80% sustained capacity for viable recoupment (~44 weeks). Tony nominations in ~May 2026 are the defining test.

Production Budget (LP, July 30 2025)

Physical Production	$762,000
Theatre Expenses	$950,000
Advertising	$1,250,000
Developmental Expenses	$711,350
Salaries / Contracts / Other	$1,886,900
Per Diem, Housing, Transport	$357,000
G&A	$321,500
Total Production Costs	$5,878,750
Bonds & Deposits	$202,136
Royalty Advances	$86,891
Reserve	$1,832,223
TOTAL CAPITALIZATION	$8,000,000

Weekly P&L Framework (LP Schedule)

Fixed Weekly Opex	$480,455
Potential Gross Weekly	$1,109,580
Potential NAGWBOR	$1,020,814
Min Weekly Guarantee	$20,000
Breakeven NAGWBOR	~$538K (52.7%)
Breakeven Gross (est.)	~$584K
Current Gross	$534K
Est. Weekly P&L	(~$47K) LOSS

Key LP Terms

Profit split after recoupment

50% LPs / 50% GPs

Stop clause risk

Grosses below threshold → theater can terminate

NYC tax credit

None expected per LPA

GP exec fees

$72K preproduction + $5,760/week + royalty

Lead Producer

Kevin McCollum (Alchemation LLC)

LP Recoupment Schedule — WNOP Model (Subscription Documents, July 30 2025)

% Capacity	NAGWBOR	Weekly P&L	Wks to Full Recoup	Status

Cumulative WNOP

—

net profit/loss vs opex

% Recouped

~2–4%

of $8M capitalization

Reserve Remaining

—

LP had $1.83M buffer

At Current Pace

Never

to full recoupment

Recoupment Progress — $8,000,000 Capitalization

$0 ~$200K of $8M recouped $8M (full recoupment)

Cumulative WNOP Over Time

Running total of weekly profit/loss · Dashed line = full $8M recoupment · Missing weeks excluded

Weeks to Full Recoupment From Today (from LP Schedule)

120% Capacity

~19 wks

from opening · already passed

100% Capacity

—

from today if Tony lift hits 100%

90% Capacity

—

sustained post-nominations

80% Capacity

—

modest Tony bump

74% (Current)

Never

below breakeven at current pace

Total to Date

$14.6M

confirmed gross (Playbill)

Week-by-Week WNOP & Cumulative Recoupment

Wk	Week End	Gross	NAGWBOR	WNOP	Cumulative	% Recouped

Key Context

WNOP (Weekly Net Operating Profit) is calculated from the LP recoupment schedule: WNOP = 0.631 × (NAGWBOR − $538,124) where NAGWBOR ≈ gross × 91.9%. The LP's $1.83M reserve was designed to absorb early operating losses while the show builds audience. That reserve is now being drawn on each week the show operates below breakeven. Weeks with no confirmed gross are excluded from the cumulative calculation.

Two Strangers vs Maybe Happy Ending

Add Week · Two Strangers